Gulf Keystone Technical Analysis Update

I've been calling a move to the upside in Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) for a few months now, but it's taken a little longer than I expected for the company to begin this process. Nevertheless, it seems to me that the breakout is now on (again...)!











































The key indicator here is the 50 day Simple Moving Average (50 SMA), which has been a consistent obstacle to any rally in GKP over the last year. In fact, the stock has never held a move above the 50 SMA for more than two days until now.


I have a slow stochastic and RSI on my chart above, but I would recommend ignoring them, as historically they've both had worse that 50% accuracies when it comes to picking GKP's future price movements.


Current major resistance levels are at:

40p
41.2p (100 SMA)
42p
52p


These factors combined with the latest fundamental news that the company is beginning to be paid by the Kurdistan Regional Government for its exports gives a positive backdrop to the improved technical situation.


The next catalyst for an expansion in volatility here is the expected CPR on the Akri-Bijeel oil field, that GKP hold a 20% stake in. If this (as currently expected by the market) is revised up, this could be another reason to be bullish on the stock.


With the news that the data room was to be closed at the end of the summer, there is also a chance that we may begin to hear news on the M&A front, which has been quiet for a very long time now.



Good Luck,


The Masked Stock Trader