Free Technical Analysis Tools

Below are a list of online tools that I have found useful as a (for the best part) technical swing trader of equities:




Free Chart and Candlestick Pattern Scanners:


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan


https://www.britishbulls.com/Default.aspx?lang=en


https://www.americanbulls.com/Default.aspx?lang=en




Free Candlestick Pattern Statistics:


http://thepatternsite.com/CandleEntry.html




Free Chart Pattern Statistics:


http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html




Free Live Trade Data:


http://www.moneyam.com/


https://www.google.com/finance




Free Learning Resources/Idea Generators (UK):


https://www.youtube.com/user/zakmir1


https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper



Enjoy,

The Masked Stock Trader

Long Glencore and Thomas Cook

I went long on Glendora and Thomas Cook yesterday morning.


Thomas Cook (TCG):

• This is a volatility funnel trade (very similar to a symmetrical triangle formation really) on the daily chart beginning at the high on April 10th.

• I am looking to exit between 165p and 170p here and I'll begin to rethink/.reanalyse the position at the 150p level and exit at 145p.

Glencore (GLEN):

• This is simply a medium term upwards trend follow.

• I'm looking to exit between the 325p and 330p level. I will begin to reconsider/reanalyse this trade at 195 and probably exit at a break of the 190p level.

Enjoy,

The Masked Stock Trader

Swing Trade Portfolio (New Year)

Here is where I will be posting my track record for the main technical swing trade portfolio that I manage (note that I publish/have published technical analysis reports for all of the below trades):

Company/EPIC	Buy Date	Sell Date	Trade Gain or Loss/%
QPP	8/12/2014	12/3/2015	2.880232384
TUNG	12/3/2015	31/3/15	7.18887598
WSG	31/3/15	21/4/15	7.605917992
GKP	21/4/15	Active Trade	Active Trade
GLEN	11/5/2015	Active Trade	Active Trade
TCG	11/5/2015	Active Trade	Active Trade

Long Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP)

UPDATE (30/04/2015):

• I must confess that I was taken slightly by surprise by the UT at 40p today, having expected a close in the low 39p region after a bounce off of the 38p support level, but this was a nice and bullish way to end the day nevertheless.

• This close at 40p confirmed the bullish rising trend line I have previously discussed from the base level support at 35.5p, which can be seen in the graph below. 

• This basically is playing out in a gently bullish way now, with no huge swings caused by herds of traders moving in and out - everything below still applies in case anyone is interested and as we begin to gather more momentum I wouldn't be surprised if this trend line become parabolic.

UPDATE (27/04/2015):

• We had a great day today, closing above the 50 day SMA that had previously been at 40.38p as of Friday's closing bell. This confirmed the bullish set up and volatility funnel described in the previous analyses.

• This means that technically, the next resistance points are at the 45p and 49.75p and with the 20 day SMA being only 1.5/2.0p off of the 50 day SMA these seem like they'll be less difficult to break than the chart perhaps suggests.

• A break through the 100 day SMA at 49.33p would give us technical targets of 60.49p (the 200 day SMA), 61.5p, 68.75p, 75p and 80p, which are the next major resistance levels.

• Support can now be found at 40p, 39p, 37.50p, 35p and 33.50p - an added benefit to those thinking of going long who worry about their downside support levels on trades (as we all should).

• I am yet to decide on my exit point, but I will make it available to see via my twitter account.

All the best,

The Masked Stock Trader

UPDATE (23/04/2015):

• I felt that it was worth adding that even as we are still under the 40p level, as long as we don't fall below the 33.5p support line, this is positive for the impending move towards breaking the 50 day SMA and ploughing through the 40p level.

• This is all down to the simple maths of "if you add something to an average that's less than the value of the average, said average will fall in value" - meaning that while we continue to close above 33.5p and below 40p the 50 day SMA is falling with us and will begin to encroach on previously broken resistances - i.e. it becomes easier to break through this 50 day SMA.

• Added to this, I also feel that the higher than normal volumes we're seeing over on the OTC markets in the USA are a leading indicator for news to come over in the UK regarding GKP.

I have no licence to give financial advice, so don't use this information as such advice, etc.


Having closed my long position in Westminster Group for 7.6% worth of upside, I have moved into Gulf Keystone Petroleum for another technical trade:

• I like the base that seems to have formed over the last three months at the 33.5p on the closing prices of the chart and this is the level where I will reconsider the trade or take the trade as being invalidated and look to exit.

• This triple bottom at 35.5p has helped to create a volatility funnel between the short (10 and 20 day SMAs) and longer term moving averages (50 and 100 day SMAs). This tightening of the prices with a clear floor on the chart suggests that there's significant upside once the 50 day SMA has been breeched and held.

• Based on this funnelling effect, a break of the 50 day SMA at 40.91p could allow for a resistance free ride towards the 100 day SMA at 50.72p and a breech of this would lead us to target the February highs at the 60p level.

• In the case of recovery plays like GKP, the fact that they have been in a long term down trend for many years ironically reduces the sustained long term short risk on the stock (shorting a stock that has fallen 92% from its highs would be seen as a negative asymmetric trade - you are risking more points of downside than upside).

• I also like the way in which the base at 35.5p is beginning to create a bowl shape on the chart, with the 20 day SMA beginning to uptrend along with the 10 day SMA and the price action, which to me indicates that the fundamental position is either beginning to improve or is at least being recognised in a more bullish light.

All the best,

The Masked Stock Trader

Westminster Group - A look at the Ferry Contract.

To get the disclaimers out of the way first, I have no licence to give financial advice and I have a long position in Westminster Group within my current portfolios.



Westminster Group seems to either be a bastion for thoughts of great rage or those of huge potential for most private investors, with little occupying the middle ground in-between.


Ignoring the fluff around the deal and moving to the numbers, the deal looks to be set to provide large revenues for Westminster Group over the duration of the twenty-one year contract, with it being initially valued by the company at $300m (around £202m).


We have to make a few assumption in order to continue this (initially) very harsh analysis:

• The USD to GBP rate doesn't change 
• We take a high level of inflation per year at 4% 
• We assume that banking facilities pay no interest rate on money accumulated by the company.
• We exclude any taxes or charges

Split evenly per year over 21 years (not realistic), the figure of £202m gets eroded by inflation at a real rate of 4% per year, meaning that by 2036 (year 21) this contract has been effectively worth £92.44m.


Now, this hardly sounds like a reason to be bullish, but actually we have to view this in context with the current market capitalisation of the company - £14.9m. Even if we then say that because this cash hasn't been realised yet we reduce the value of the contract by 50% as a risk hedge, you still end up with a contract valued at £46.22m (or 3.1 times the current market capitalisation of the company - 210.2% potential upside).


There is a pretty comprehensive argument to suggest however that this $300m figure is a very conservative value, as the poster "sunnyca" on the LSE forum eloquently puts it:

Just thought I'd post some facts regarding figures for the ferry/airport etc. In June 2013 the "security fee" which has to be paid by everyone no exceptions was $45, it has risen to $50 over that period. The transfer from Lungi to Freetown by the old delapidated ferry was $40 unless you bought a fake ticket (in which case double that), also your bags went by a seperate boat so absolutely HAD to be locked or they would be "inspected", the road journey could in fact take up to 6 hours and would cost between 200,000-400,000 SLL ($50-100), so having read all the speculation on the bb regarding prices I thought it time to make it more realistic. The ferry project was upgraded for very good reasons, the people using it will be paying over $60 minimum that is a simple fact. Add in the security fee and round down to $100 minimum for each visitor utilising both (ignoring any local use) and again just use the minimum estimate of ferry passengers then ammortise again and you will get a true picture of expected absolute minimum revenue i.e. $1,600,000 per month, this figure is the minimum that can be expected from the combination of the projects. For all that people want news on other fronts which is understandable we have this here and now, it just isn't functioning fully yet. I would fully expect that figure to be exceeded within the first 3 months of "normality" returning to SL. Not at all bad for a "backwater airport and ferry business".



I will seriously consider adding more here if the technical set up and fundamental situation remains the same as funds become available from elsewhere in my portfolio.


Enjoy,

The Masked Stock Trader

Quindell - Number Crunching

My portfolio still currently contains long positions in Quindell and I have no licence to give financial advice, etc.


Let us assume the following point - the current share price is at exactly £1.30.

• This means that Quindell's market capitalisation equals £576m

• The Slater and Gordon Deal is valued at £640m, with "up to" £500m being possibly returned to shareholders.

Let us now take away the value of this potential capital return form the company's valuation at £1.30.

• £576m-£500m =£76m

• Now, we know that Quindell is going to use some of the proceeds to clear or reduce their levels of debt (around £50m - off the top of my head) from the £140m left over; this then gives a cash in the bank figure of around £90m.

• Therefore, if you buy shares at £1.30 you can effectively arbitrage the difference between the cash they will likely have in the bank and the market capitalisation post the capital return.

For example:

• At £1.30 (minus the £500m) Quindell has a market cap of £76m with no debt

• This market cap then equates to a share price of £0.1727.

• If you only value the cash in the bank (£90m or £0.20 per share) - you literally exclude valuing telematic insurance - you then have the potential upside of:

0.20/0.1727 = 15.8% upside.

Most importantly, this is the figures you get WITHOUT valuing the remaining divisions of the company!

Enjoy,

The Masked Stock Trader

Free Weekly Austrian Technical Analysis 13/04/2015

DISCLAIMER: I am not FCA authorised or authorised in any sense to give financial advice. Do not regard any of the following links, or information as investment or trading advice.

N.B. Currently FireFox does not support Google Drive and therefore these reports may not open.

This Week's Analyses:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0wd9XTIWftmfk9PZ1VLN2tWX0wzSTgwSEd3Ml9DNEw1eGtqeF9fUlVBNXItU2Y0MlBkWGc&authuser=0

How to use these reports:

http://themaskedstocktrader.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/technical-analysis-instructions.html

More information regarding this project can be found here:

http://themaskedstocktrader.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/my-experience-with-quantitative-finance.html